The Trade Review You Didn't Ask For

So, we had quite the stir yesterday in FCM, didn't we? Peter traded basically any and all prospects with a pulse in Washington's minors to Decker's Mets. At the outset, I thought it looked in pretty poor taste. It looked as-if Peter told Decker, "Just tell me who you like and I'll give them to you. All of them."

However, after perusing through each player, that's not the case at all. It certainly is an all-in offer from Washington and nearly clears them of any prospect with promise or hope (as well as next year's picks), but that doesn't mean that the Mets and Decker got away with stealing double-digit first round values. Let's take a look...

SP Jim Luper: Making the ascension to starter goes a long way in his value. As a reliever, I just don't really care too much about him. Sure he'd have a nice enough control/movement combo with some upside. However, as a reliever I don't see him as anything significantly more valuable than what I can find in the 3rd or 4th round. As a starter, I see a very good, reliable pitcher. I don't see an Ace (like some think). He's already jumped this year and is pre-window, so he's probably likely to be about 84/88 next Spring Training. He hasn't taken much of a peak hit when he's aged, so I can see him having two more years to develop. I could see him teasing 90s vitals, but upper 80s to low 90s control and movement just isn't quite Ace material in FCM.

Verdict: Mid 1st Value

SP Dusty Wilson: He has not jumped yet this season, is pre-window, and fell from a 93 peak to a 90 peak last off-season. So, I feel pretty good about saying he'll peak out at age 23. And that's just not enough time for his control to be good enough for the rotation. I'd liken him to my own Bret Ryskina - Good movement and mediocre control. Good enough for a MLB role and maybe even spot start, but not a guy that you'd want to rely on.

Verdict: Mid 3rd Value

SP Dave Blasingame: I totally get why Peter took him in the draft four seasons ago. He was 16 and who knows what kind of magic Mogul might work on him. Well, fast-forward to age 19 and his control still looks like complete shit. If a guy like this were in the draft, he'd undoubtedly fall very far and would be someone's unlucky auto-pick. Maybe the sanity checks save him and he starts seeing some real progress in control, but I still him praying his control gets to 70+ and he can be a bullpen piece for a few years.

Verdict: 4th Round Value

SP Daniel Cory: He has a pretty nice build. Also nice is that he's only dropped a few points when he's aged. He's already jumped this year and clearly still pre-window, however, I can see him still developing for another five or six years. It's tough to say exactly how good I think he'll be, but if you'd like his build as a 19-year-old pitcher, then I think it's tough not to like him a lot.

Verdict: Late 1st Value

OF T.J. Sear: It's a little intriguing that he hasn't jumped this year yet and only fell from a 94 to 93 peak last off-season, though I still have a hard time placing his value. I certainly don't see him sticking in CF, but I can see him having a bat that doesn't do any one thing great, but can do a little of everything.

Verdict: Mid 2nd Value

DH Jeff Harris: For a 78 overall, I'd expect him to look a lot better than he does. He looks like what I'd expect from a low 70s overall and it'd be great if he could actually play a position. I guess he could play 1B, but he doesn't look like enough of a threat there and could likely be easily replaced by someone better.

Verdict: 4th Round Value

C Marc Thibodeaux: I think he's a real prize prospect. A switch hitting catcher, who could start to see his contact distance itself from his power. He's also quite solid defensively. Some may like power from the catcher spot, but if he can hit for a high average, he'll still produce well in the batter's box.

Verdict: Mid 1st Value

1B Elmer Candalaria: He just had a jump for Decker! ... And I'm still not sold on him. I'm not seeing the power numbers that I'd like to see from a 1B and I question his contact. He's one of those very low K bats and I worry that he'll always be a guy who underperforms. But, he's still a lefty and even with four or five point aging drops, he should have a decent amount of time left to develop.

Verdict: Early 2nd Value

1B Gabriel Paneda: With his low contact and as drastic of splits that he has, you'd have a tough time getting me to buy into him being a 1st rounder. While he is very young (and you'd expect his power to develop), I seriously question whether his contact will be good enough for the rest of it to matter.

Verdict: Mid 2nd Value

OF Nat Hanson: It looks like he's already jumped for Decker! Though he doesn't possess that big time stolen base speed, he still has that prototypical CF build. His speed and defense will certainly be good enough to roam central and it's a no-brainer that his contact will shoot up there.

Verdict: Late 1st Value

IF Franklin Marshall: I get the love for his vroom, but his poor fielding concerns me (and yes, that considering what his speed will do for his opportunities) and that's probably why he fell as late as he did being a speedster. Personally, I'd slide him over to 2B, where he'll see less opportunities to boot. His speed and (likely) contact bat will still play well over there.

Verdict: Late 2nd Value

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So, all-in-all, here's what I figure Decker's haul value was:

1st Round: Five (Includes WAS 1st)

2nd Round: Four

3rd Round: Two (Includes WAS 2nd)

4th Round: Three (Includes WAS 3rd)

5th Round One (Includes WAS 4th)

So, out of 15 pieces, I think Decker got five good pieces, four solid ones, and then six pieces that no one should give a shit about. Nine valuable pieces sounds about right for two pre-arb under-25 players who have some elite vitals!

2107 FCM Top 200 Prospects

01. Zack Hecht, SP

2107 Value: 84/89 | Drafted: 2102 (Red Sox) – 1st Round, 3rd Overall

Projected Build: 95 Con, 65 Pow, 96 Mov | FV: 65

 

This ranking and future value is 100% based on Hecht becoming a starter. It would be a tragedy to leave him in the bullpen. First off, his endurance is so close to crossing the line that it seems obvious. Secondly, being picked third overall should be for 200 innings, not ~60 innings. Lastly, he has a build that would be dynamite as in the rotation. Top notch control, movement, and ground ball rates are things to adore in the Mogul world. Put great infield defense behind him and he’ll be an annual contender for a Cy Young.

 

02. Ross Diller, SP

2107 Value: 87/94 | Drafted: 2103 (Mets) – 1st Round, 2nd Overall

Projected Build: 99 Con, 86 Pow, 95 Mov | FV: 65

               

Diller is that prospect about to make a big impact in the majors.  He has had a good progression since being drafted with a big jump in his development at 19 and steady increases since.  His numbers in the minors have continued to get better as each year passes as well. However, he is not without some questions.  His Homerun totals have been higher than they were in his Amateur stats, while they remain around one per 9 IP, it has been a bit higher than most would like to see.  If it doesn’t become a problem in the majors, then he should be an Ace with a long career ahead of him.

               

03. Brian Woodworth, SP

2107 Value: 78/93 | Drafted: 2105 (Pirates) – 1st Round, 14th Overall

Projected Build: 95 Con, 85 Pow, 94 Mov | FV: 65

               

Woodworth projects to be terribly similar to our last prospect in Diller. While Woodworth projects to be slightly lower vital wise, there are some differences that might point to a career that could potentially have a few more bumps in it.  But first, Woodworth has had a nice upward trending progression since he was drafted with a steady stair climb progression that is ideal for prospects. The problem with Woodworth is that the concerns of home runs being a issue have not gone away. If anything, they have gotten worse (as has his K:BB ratio).  In his minor league experience so far, he has given up well over 1.5 HR/9 and his K:BB ratio is coming in at 2:1, which is down from the near 3:1 it had been prior.  While it might be too early to tell, I don’t think Woodworth becomes the Ace you want and is outpitched by those prospects above him (potentially many that are yet to come on our list).

 

04. Marvin Wessel, SP

2107 Value: 88/93 | Drafted:Drafted: 2101 (Marlins) – 1st Round, 11th Overall

Projected Build: 93 Con, 79 Pow, 97 Mov | FV: 65

               

Wessel has been moved around quiet a bit since he was drafted, fortunately that has not had a negative effect on his development as it has continued to slowly increase to this point. We are on the verge of him only facing MLB batters from henceforth.  His minor league numbers have been good, his homeruns are on the same level as Diller’s and his K:BB ratio has gotten steadily better each year to a near 3:1 level last season.  While his build makes you want him to be a GB% pitcher, he is not and appears to have a good career ahead of him. The last step in his development will determine whether he becomes an Ace or a good #1 pitcher (and yes there is a difference).

 

05. Jason Archie, SP

2107 Value: 71/94 | Drafted: 2104 (Yankees) – 1st Round, 2nd Overall

Projected Build: 90 Con, 79 Pow, 98 Mov | FV:60

               

If Archie continues along his progression path then he should end up a special SP. He has yet to have that “big” jump year that could cement his status as one of the elites in the file. As we see with some prospects on this list his homerun numbers have increased in his transitions to MiLB, however they do seem to be pacing with the increase in IP, so there is not a lot of real concern there. His K:BB ratio has gone down quiet a bit, however with the possibility of him transitioning into a ground ball pitcher, then that won't be much of a concern long-term. All-in-all his stats have been poor, but he is only 20 turning 21 this May, so there is a great amount of upside with him. I would expect him to meet most (if not all of that upside) and settle nicely into the top of a rotation in a few years.

06. Perry Bradridge, SP

2107 Value: 82/94 | Drafted: 2105 (Rockies) – 1st Round, 1st Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 74 Pow, 100 Mov | FV:60

               

Bradridge is a fast-climbing prospect that has been firing on all cylinders since being drafted and is just one step away from making his MLB debut.  The concern with him to date has been a influx of home runs allowed this last season, giving up the gopher ball at a 1.37 HR/9 clip. While not super high, it’s potentially a bit on a concern for a GB pitcher.  If that season was an outlier and he continues on his fast-paced progression, he will be not only in the MLB next season, but will potentially start it at the top of this very list.

 

07. Paul Brown, 1B

2107 Value: 86/94 | Drafted: 2105 (Orioles) – 1st Round, 2nd Overall

Projected Build: 75 Con, 100 Pow, 100 Eye | 67 Spd, 80 Def | FV: 60

           

Brown will always be compared to the player taken 11 picks after him in the 2105 draft (Joseph Aldridge). However, he was the first to become MLB ready and he should be seeing a steady dose of MLB pitching this year.  His development has been steady to this point as he enters his peak window this year so this year, we shall see what we have in Brown.  If he gets that last bump in this development, we get the perennial all-star Baltimore saw when they drafted him or if he becomes just another lefty mashing 1B.

 

08. Marc Micone, SP

2107 Value: 89/93 | Drafted: 2103 (Rockies) – 1st Round, 6th Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 86 Pow, 93 Mov | FV: 60

               

Micone is a prospect that has had the inverse head and shoulders development, as in his age 21 season he looked horrible before rebounding to his previous track record.  Micone is set for the MLB this year and ready to face MLB hitting on the one a week schedule.  His last season was his best effort in not giving up to many homeruns as he gave up under 1.00 HR/9. However, previous years saw much higher totals, so we are wary on what kind of mark he will make on the MLB. His K:BB ratio has been steady at over 2:1 with some seasons pushing 3:1. He isn’t a power pitching build nor he is a GB build and without him having picked a lane, we are not sure how he plays out. If he gets one last good bump in his development then we expect a good #2 pitcher, if he stalls out at the end then we don’t expect much more than a #3/4 starter.

 

09. Ned Buncombe, SS

2107 Value: 81/90 | Drafted: 2103 (Diamondbacks) – 2nd Round, 39th Overall

Projected Build: 77 Con, 90 Pow, 81 Eye | 87 Spd 91 Def | | FV: 60

           

Buncombe is another guy who is ready to do nothing but face MLB pitching. His development path has been unique to say the least. After spending five years as a non-impact prospect, he is hitting a stair climb in the twilight of his prospect hood.  While in his career window he gets a big boost to his power, which makes an incredibly unique SS. He has the potential to be a 20/20 guy with a gold glove defensive upside. The only concern you have with him is his health, which could end up having long term effects on his career longevity. Either way you are thrilled to have him as your SS who you get to play for a decade plus.

 

10. Aaron Capes, SP

2107 Value: 73/94 | Drafted: 2106 (Angels) – 1st Round, 6th Overall

Projected Build: 83 Con, 90 Pow, 94 Mov | FV: 60

 

The only player drafted from the 2106draft to make the top ten is Capes. There is not a lot to review on him as he has not had a progression path set as of yet and could go one of a thousand different ways. His limited time in a farm system did not go as well as some have but he is only 17 so when you take that into account you clearly don’t worry about what he has produced to date.  Time will tell more on this prospect than most of the others. Where he falls on the list next year will be the first marker to note.

 

11. Eduardo Fernandez, SP

2107 Value: 87/95 | Drafted: 2103 (Brewers) – 1st Round, 18th Overall

Projected Build: 89 Con, 80 Pow, 95 Mov | FV: 60

 

It’s obvious that he’s a little overrated, but if he were rated something like 84/93 would you really like him? I think so. He should have top notch movement to go along with good control. His ground ball rate is a little low, even for a guy who’ll get into the low 80s for power, so it raises a concern if his home runs will indeed hurt him. However, with a build that he projects out having, it’s not a major concern and he should become a very effective pitcher.

 

12. Josh Olds, 2B

2107 Value: 77/93 | Drafted: 2105 (Padres) – 1st Round, 6th Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 83 Pow, 91 Eye | 75 Spd, 90 Def | FV: 60

 

He has one of those sleeper builds. When you look at him right now, there’s nothing overly impressive. Both his contact and power are lagging behind his overall, but when you forecast what he’ll look like down the road, it’s a build that should be very productive. His top notch defense doesn’t hurt his case either. And sure, you’d love for him to be faster and can see how his low health could hinder him, but when he’s on the field he’ll be a dynamic bat and a reliable fielder.

 

13. Nick Varak, SP

2107 Value: 81/93 | Drafted: 2104 (Athletics) – 1st Round, 21st Overall

Projected Build: 92 Con, 82 Pow, 91 Mov | FV: 60

 

Doug does a great job of taking pitchers that most of us scoff at on draft day and then getting them on the fast track to the majors. I have to assume that we did the same with Varak. He’s got a control build with a low GB%. That fits the bill of a player that you’d red flag. However, his projected build looks quite good (especially if his movement can at least get even with his control). He could arrive in the majors sometime this season or early next year. If he can keep the home runs in check, this might be a guy that we look back on as an arm that fell too far in the draft.

 

14. Santos Bortillo, SP

2107 Value: 78/90 | Drafted: 2101 (Tigers) – 2nd Round, 32nd Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 78 Pow, 100 Mov | FV: 60

 

I’ll be the first to call bullshit on his movement getting to 100. With Mogul’s sanity checks, it’ll be tough for it to get that high. Which likely means control or power could see a little bit more of a boost. All said, this looks like a pitcher who could put up Ace numbers. So, why is he only #14? His health is lower and that will likely keep him from regularly starting in all 32 games (if ever). He’s more likely to only start in around 25 games each year.

 

15. Joey White, SP

2107 Value: 82/88 | Drafted: 2102 (Nationals) – 3rd Round, 69th Overall

Projected Build: 83 Con, 73 Pow, 91 Mov | FV: 55

 

This is a peculiar ranking, but I think I can understand why he’s rated this high. For starters, the file doesn’t understand that he’s about to age over Spring Training. It also suggests that he should be a starter with higher endurance while at the same time it thinks he has good power due to being listed as a RP. However, there are still things to like about White. He hasn’t dropped much when he’s aged in the past, so he could have another two years to progress. He does have a pleasing build to go with a nice ground ball rate. Much like Hecht on BOS, this ranking hinges on him becoming a starter and reeling in 200 innings vs being left as a reliever.

 

16. James MacCammon, SP

2107 Value: 65/94 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 1st Round, 4th Overall

Projected Build: 84 Con, 87 Pow, 95 Mov | FV: 55

 

MacCammon has had an interesting progression so far. He took a dip in peak that was very promising, but took a large drop in overall after the draft. However, he got back on track for progression this season. Though his build might not be finalized yet, he looks like a power SP with more of his projection promises for him to be a movement monster.  His minor league numbers are not ideal, his home runs this last full season were 1.08 per 9 (which is fine). It’s his poor K:BB ratio that is less than ideal, so it will be interesting to see what he can do this season.  Overall, you like what you see out of him so far and he is progressing into a top of the rotation arm.

 

17. Dan Hoogaboom, SP

2107 Value: 82/93 | Drafted: 2101 (Padres) – 1st Round, 12th Overall

Projected Build: 85 Con, 79 Pow, 100 Mov | FV: 55

 

Like already said, movement doesn’t develop quite what the projection file thinks due to sanity checks. Hoogaboom will still have fantastic movement and could see better than projected control with those sanity checks giving extra points away to different skills. He’s been tough to get a read on about home runs, but if he can keep them around 1.00 per 9, then he’ll be a very good starter.

 

18. Tommy Boutte, CF

2107 Value: 73/89 | Drafted: 2103 (Dodgers) – 3rd Round, 86th Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 74 Pow, 82 Eye | 88 Spd, 88 Def | FV: 55

 

Boutte was a great pickup for Washington. I think he alone is more valuable than what was essentially traded to get him (DH Ron Charles). Boutte is fantastic in the field and will be more than adequate in the batter’s box. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his contact trending upward and seeing him in the top ten next year.

 

19. Jorge Rivera, CF

2107 Value: 77/90 | Drafted: 2103 (Twins) – 1st Round, 1st Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 74 Pow, 82 Eye | 88 Spd, 88 Def | FV: 55

 

I think it’s interesting for Rivera to be ranked just behind Boutte. I think most would prefer Rivera, however Boutte may end up just as productive. However, that’s a discussion for a different time.

Rivera should have elite contact to go with great speed and elite defense. That sounds like a top ten prospect. However, he offers little power and even with his speed he cannot stretch many hits into doubles. That speed is also more useful on defense than the bases as he’s probably a ~30 steal candidate rather than a top 50+ steal threat. All said, he’s still quite impressive and will be a prized commodity.

 

20. Ross Entwistle, SP

2107 Value: 73/89 | Drafted: 2103 (Brewers) – 2nd Round, 45th Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 74 Pow, 97 Mov | FV: 55

 

He has a great control-movement combo build and won’t be completely devoid of power. Being a lefty scares away a lot of people who would rather settle for a mediocre righty. Entwistle looks like he as the right balance of lower home runs, a good ground ball rate, and movement to keep batters of the base. He’s a keeper.

 

21. Tim Balmer, SP

2107 Value: 82/95 | Drafted: 2103 (Mariners) – 1st Round, 13th Overall

Projected Build: 85 Con, 84 Pow, 93 Mov | FV: 55

               

Balmer has had a wonderful progression as he has developed with consistent jumps with one big one in this past season that has him set for a breakout.  While his vitals and pitches have not been given the jumps one might like at 21, he still has a few years to grow.  His superior stats in high school have somewhat continued in the MiLB system.  His home runs have gone up, which could be an issue and his walks tend to be a bit high. If he can get them under control, you are looking at a top of the rotation arm.

 

22. Bob Ulriksen, SP

2107 Value: 80/94 | Drafted: 2104 (Yankees) – 1st Round, 10th Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 70 Pow, 95 Mov | FV: 55

               

Ulriksen has had a steady upward trending progression since he has been drafted which, if it continues, could make him a very good pitcher.  He had very good high school stats and his numbers so far in the minors have been hot and cold. He isn’t giving up homeruns, but his OBA is quiet high and his WHIP is even higher.  While none of this spells doom on him, he will need to get those under control to be the top end of the rotation arm that he could be. If he was put in front of a good defensive infield that might be all he needs to reach his full potential.

 

23. Matthew Toland, SP

2107 Value: 68/93 | Drafted: 2106 (Blue Jays) – 1st Round, 5th Overall

Projected Build: 82 Con, 94 Pow, 91 Mov | FV: 55

               

As we look at his career scouting, Toland has been progressing nicely. His peak is remaining constant and his overall is steadily increasing is a good sign. With only one season in the MiLB system at Single-A, his numbers in High school and college are superb for a power pitcher, whereas his first season in A-ball was not as good (it was not disheartening either).  Power pitchers are feast or famine and it will be interesting to monitor which he turns into. He will either be a high end Ace, or a lowly long reliever on a rebuilder.

 

24. Mike Alexis, RF

2107 Value: 68/90 | Drafted: 2106 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 4th Overall

Projected Build: 92 Con, 82 Pow, 82 Eye | 76 Spd, 85 Def | FV: 50

 

Alexis is a projectable outfielder who has the look of a 2-hole hitter. I do worry that his bat will be less than inspiring, but with vitals all above his overall and an arm to play RF there’s a lot to like about him. He should hit for a nice average and in the least hit for doubles power. With solid defense, he’ll be fine at either corner spot.

 

25. Ben Moore, RF

2107 Value: 74/92 | Drafted: 2105 (Mariners) – 2nd Round, 45th Overall

Projected Build: 86 Con, 84 Pow, 88 Eye | 74 Spd, 88 Def | FV: 50

 

He has one of those interesting do-a –little-bit-o-everything builds. He won’t wow you with any one skills at the plate, but he should hit for a decent average, a fair amount of power, and draw walks when he isn’t doing either of the former. With good enough defense at either corner spot, he should fit into an everyday role. Though, in the end, he’s a mzy prospect, so fuck that guy (he should be a 20-grade prospect).

2106 Chicago White Sox Prospects

I didn't explain much when I posted the Angels Top Prospects, so I'll give a little insight. I've tried projecting what the players should look like in our March 1 file and then how the rest of their development will play out. I've tried giving an honest assessment. Not all 90+ peaks will be great and not all low peaks will be bench/non-leverage bullpen pieces. The Future Value (FV) is also meant to be a tough grade. If you look at top prospect lists, good prospects get a 50 or 55 grade and 60+ grades are not handed out lightly. Here's an estimation of how they translate to FCM:

40 FV = Bench Player / Non-Leverage Bullpen Pitcher

45 FV = Possible Starter (Lineup or Rotation) / Adequate Bullpen Pitcher

50 FV = Adequate Lineup Player / Clear Rotation Pitcher

55 FV = Good Lineup Player / Mid-Rotation or Better Pitcher

60 FV = Great Lineup Player / Top of Rotation Pitcher

65 FV = Elite Player

70 FV = Generational Talent

If you noticed, there's no 80 FV listed. That's because those would be extremely rare. We've probably had only handful of players worthy of this grade in FCM's near 100 year history.

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Now, back to the White Sox list. It was asked of me to format a top prospects list, like I did with the Angels. It expanded into a collaboration of Wiguy's thoughts on his prospects along with my outside take. In the future, I may look to do this for the top 10 prospects of all of FCM.

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10. Frances Gine, RF/LF

2106 Value: 69/89 | Drafted: 2105 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 16th Overall

Projected Build: 85 Con, 87 Pow, 93 Eye | 71 Spd, 79 Def | FV: 45

 

Gine was selected in the same draft class as Marc Toscanini, but has been slower to progress. While he still has time to develop, he’s currently lagging his classmate. His vitals suggest he should have more power than he’s displayed thus far. He projects as the White Sox LF of the future, but only time will tell if he’ll reach his ceiling or if he’s head for the label of a bust. 

 

09. Bruce Marshall, RF

2106 Value: 86/90 | Drafted: 2102 (Giants) – 1st Round, 20th Overall

Projected Build: 90 Con, 79 Pow, 84 Eye | 86 Spd, 83 Def | FV: 45

 

Marshall was the centerpiece of the Castaneda trade. A recent jump makes him a viable piece, but just how good will depend on how much longer he has to develop. He does a lot of things alright, but doesn’t excel in any one area. He should be solid with the glove and projects as a bottom part of the lineup bat. 

 

08. Marc Abrams, SP

2106 Value: 81/89 | Drafted: 2104 (Dodgers) – 1st Round, 8th Overall

Projected Build: 89 Con, 82 Pow, 85 Mov | FV: 50

 

Abrams was a target for the White Sox in the 2104 draft, but was selected just before their pick. So, when the chance to acquire him came around, the White Sox jumped on it. His GB% would ideally be higher, but he should have a productive career. He has the tools to be a successful, but needs his movement to shoot up (and quickly). Abrams could become a #2/3 starter, but his movement issues could also mean that he’s a bottom of the rotation arm.

 

07. Adam Gilling, SP

2106 Value: 81/89 | Drafted: 2105 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 18th Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 70 Pow, 92 Mov | FV: 50

 

Gilling has a high GB rate and the profile of a control/movement guy, but for all he has going right the ball seems to leave the ballpark far too often. He has a chance to put the gopher balls behind him, because if he doesn’t keep it on the ground, hitters will elevate the ball. However, if he does, he could be a very good pitcher.

 

06. Josh Yacoub, 1B

2106 Value: 75/94 | Drafted: 2105 (Mariners) – 3rd Round, 76th Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 96 Pow, 78 Eye | 68 Spd, 79 Def | FV: 50

 

Yacoub came to the White Sox organization via trade. Originally drafted by the Mariners, he’s a right-handed 1B, which limits some of his value (especially given his drastic splits). He has shown power, but where he tops out will dictate his value. His contact and eye will most likely lag behind and it will be his ability to hit righties that will decide whether he becomes an everyday player or is destined for the bad half of platoon city. Though, if the power reaches his projections, he could be great.

 

05. Craig Neves, DH/1B

2106 Value: 67/90 | Drafted: 2106 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 8th Overall

Projected Build: 77 Con, 94 Pow, 83 Eye | 69 Spd, 76 Def | FV: 50

 

Neves is a masher through and through and projects as a #4/5 hitter. Is he going to win a batting title? Probably not…Gold Glove? No way…However, he will hit the ball over the fence and drive in a lot of runners.

 

04. Mike Alexis, RF

2106 Value: 68/90| Drafted: 2106 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 4th Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 83 Pow, 83 Eye | 76 Spd, 85 Def | FV: 50

 

Alexis is a projectable outfielder who has the look of a 2-hole hitter.  With vitals all above his overall and an arm to play RF there’s a lot to like about the build of Mr. Alexis. His amateur stats suggest that he will hit for a high average with adequate power. His development will be something to watch, as a tweak to launch angle could unlock more power and send Alexis to stardom.

 

03. Josh Tuyet, 1B/LF

2106 Value: 75/89 | Drafted: 2104 (White Sox) – 2nd Round, 42nd Overall

Projected Build: 97 Con, 85 Pow, 80 Eye | 70 Spd, 79 Def | FV: 55

 

Tuyet is an advanced 19 year old, who can play 1B with an outside chance to play LF in a pinch. Don’t let his stature fool you, his contact should be high with a nice eye and some power to follow. He will probably never be the prototypical masher at 1B, but he’ll have a place in almost any lineup. His value is tied to what a team’s preference is at 1B and how he continues to develop, but he made his debut at AAA as one of the younger players in the league and should be on his way to the majors soon.

 

02. Marc Toscanini, LF/DH

2106 Value: 85/93 | Drafted: 2105 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 20th Overall

Projected Build: 97 Con, 88 Pow, 82 Eye | 67 Spd, 75 Def | FV: 55

 

Toscanini had a major jump recently and looks to be a good player. While his defense leaves a lot to be desired and there are players with more upside, he has a projectable bat with great contact, some power, and should be a fixture in the White Sox lineup whenever he makes his debut.

 

01. Russell Braythwayt, RF

2106 Value: 76/92 | Drafted: 2106 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 1st Overall

Projected Build: 85 Con, 91 Pow, 90 Eye | 74 Spd, 86 Def | FV: 60

 

 Braythwayt projects as a power hitting lefty with good defense. His plus power and eye should make him an OPS star. If the contact comes with, he has the look of a superstar. There is a lot of development left for this prospect and things can go awry, but the future looks bright for this young corner outfielder.

2106 Los Angeles Angels Top Prospects

10. Luis Fornaris, RP

2106 Value: 61/79 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 3rd Round, 73rd Overall

Projected Build: 76 Con, 64 Pow, 79 Mov | FV: 40

 

His projected build is nothing impressive, but I think he can beat those projections. Reliever progression can do some interesting things, so I would not be surprised to see him with 80+ control and movement. Obviously, that’s the hope, but even if he stops at his projection, I’d still use him with that build.

 

09. Tim Widdicombe, SP

2106 Value: 71/82 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 3rd Round, 72nd Overall

Projected Build: 77 Con, 68 Pow, 87 Mov | FV: 45

 

His development has gone alright so far. There’s been nothing to get real excited about, but nothing to sour on him either. He’s clearly a movement build, but even with subpar control, I think he can be bottom of the rotation material if he can keep his home runs low.

 

08. Osmart Lenehan, RF

2106 Value: 72/87 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 2nd Round, 38th Overall

Projected Build: 87 Con, 81 Pow, 80 Eye | 70 Spd, 80 Def | FV: 45

 

Much like Widdicombe, Lenehan hasn’t done much to excite you (or disappoint you). He should end up with solid contact for sure. The question I have is where will his power wind up? It makes sense for his contact to widen the gap, but if his power can get to the mid 80s, I think he can be a solid corner outfield option.

 

07. Greg Howrigon, CF

2106 Value: 73/81 | Drafted: 2104 (Braves) – 2nd Round, 44th Overall

Projected Build: 83 Con, 72 Pow, 80 Eye | 88 Spd, 85 Def | FV: 45

 

Clearly his speed carries his value, but will he be good enough to start? His bat looks to be decent at-best. However, he is a switch hitter and helps maximize his speed by walking to a solid clip. If he gets to those vitals, offensively, he’ll get a chance to start.

 

06. Brad Watkins, SS

2106 Value: 78/81 | Drafted: 2102 (Indians) – 2nd Round, 57th Overall

Projected Build: 74 Con, 74 Pow , 72 Eye | 79 Spd , 90 Def | FV: 50

 

His offense looks bleak and he’s not very fast. That’s something that might lead you to believe that he’s not starter worthy. However, as a lefty bat, he has +3 splits vs RHP and has elite range defensively. It’s true that he won’t be the prettiest SS in the league, but I think he’s a recipe for success in the Mogul world.

 

05. Jason Davenport, LF/RF

2106 Value: 73/93 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 2nd Round, 33rd Overall

Projected Build: 89 Con, 80 Pow, 83 Eye | 84 Spd, 84 Def | FV: 50

 

I took a chance on taking him so early in the second round. He had more of a contact build without great SB speed and had a less-than-ideal fielding vital. However, after seeing his first aging drop makes me think that I could have a very good one. I would not be surprised to see his contact shoot up there (possibly into the mid 90s). Maybe I’m dreaming, but even just low 90s contact with 80s power and eye to go along with 80s speed, range, and arm will make him a very reliable player.

 

04. Nelson Reinoso, 2B/SS

2106 Value:  76/87 | Drafted: 2103 (Expos) – 2nd Round, 52nd Overall

Projected Build: 89 Con, 74 Pow, 82 Eye | 79 Spd, 90 Def | FV: 50

 

I had been after Reinoso for awhile and was very pleased (and surprised) when I was able to reel him in last season. Despite projecting to have good contact, I do wonder just how productive he’ll be at the plate. I think he’ll be serviceable, but still underperform his upper 80s contact. His value is clearly in the field and, paired with Watkins, will make a great double play duo.

 

03. Manny Mezgar, C

2106 Value: 79/86 | Drafted: 2099 (Marlins) – 1st Round, 14th Overall

Projected Build: 87 Con, 76 Pow, 84 Eye | 69 Spd, 86 Def| FV: 55

 

With Aaron Jordan dealt, Mezgar finally has a clear path to play in 2107. I think he’ll carry the same type of production as Jordan in the batter’s box and behind the dish (.750 OPS, 30% CS). Being a lefty is another bonus as there’s  a chance that his contact could develop to 90+ vs RHP and it creates a natural platoon.

 

02. James MacCammon, SP

2106 Value: 65/92 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 1st Round, 4th Overall

Projected Build: 82 Con, 87 Pow, 90 Mov | FV: 55

 

Projection-wise, he seems to have taken a small step back. However, I know he has plenty of time to develop and that there’s time to look like the 85/90/90+ guy that he looked on draft day. Still, I think he’d be a guy who would be pretty attractive if he were draft eligible at 20 years old next season. It’s tough to convincingly say that he’ll be an Ace, but that kind of projected build has shown to be successful and he can reside as a #2 or #3 SP just fine.

 

01. Aaron Capes, SP

2106 Value: 73/93 | Drafted: 2106 (Angels) – 1st Round, 6th Overall

Projected Build: 82 Con, 90 Pow, 91 Mov | FV: 60

 

He took an incredible (and unexpected) jump this season. If he continues developing anywhere close to like he did in 2106, he could see time in the rotation by the end of 2109, if not 2108. He’s basically the left-handed build of MacCammon with a slightly better outlook and two years younger. While it’d be great if Capes had a better ground ball rate, I can’t be sad about the power + movement combo that he should possess.

 

Trading 202

This was originally (mostly) written way back in September of 2017. I intended to finish it and publish it, but for whatever reason, it got tossed under the rug. It's finally finished!

Way back when Andy first posted his "Trading 101" blog, I had always thought to expand from that and add more pointers of my own, but never got around to it. Then he posted the Trading 101 - Refresher, I finally have some of those ideas to build from. If "Trading 101" is a class, think of those as a more specialized class on the subject of point #5 (Context of Trades) from the previous class.

Though, first off I'd like to touch on point #2 (exchanging available/not available/interest lists) on Trading 101. This seems to be the most abused step in the process. I do not understand it, but there are some people who actually want their trade partner to make offers and put little-to-no effort in helping out.

It's mind boggling to me as to why they wouldn't want to peruse through a team's assets to see what actually interests them. It gets frustrating on the other end as well. Even in well-meaning offers, you're at the mercy of the return magically meeting their unknown expectations.

And sure, I get the instances where you're "open to ideas", but that's at least giving some feedback as to where you are on the expected return. When someone doesn't even tell you if they're looking for picks, cash, prospects, veterans, specific positions it does no one any good.

If you're unsure of their value, as Andy has said, ask around! Many of the FCM vets will have no problem telling you what they think and it's not just new GMs asking vet GMs, many of the FCM vets will ask each other opinions as well.

#5: Context of Trades

Leverage: If it's mid-season and your player is up for Free Agency (and isn't worthy of being re-signed), you don't have much leverage for value for just half a season. You aren't likely to get face value just because a guy is performing well or has good vitals. There are other factors in your leverage. The other factor of that mid-season trade is it means the other team can no longer get compensation if it's a contract year.

Now, if a player has more years of team control left, then this gives you leverage. You don't have to settle for a mediocre offer and can opt to wait until the off-season when picks will be available and a lot of prospects will have aged, so people won't be sitting on their fancy peak rating.

Pick Value: Well, there's the Draft Pick Value Chart. This can help you get an idea of where trading up or trading down should net you in value. Obviously, the strength of the draft class is heavy factor. As well as who's currently on the board. Cash value fluctuates, usually based on if some teams are flush with cash and willing to offer stupid amounts of cash for pick. Here's my general cash value chart:

To get a feel for the current year's value, keep an eye on the trades being made. Too many times, people sell better picks for less when a different draft pick for cash deal was JUST POSTED an hour/day ago.

The value when trading picks for prospects or MLB players will always vary from GM-to-GM. But, I think in general, the good GMs aren't dealing their first unless they're getting a player that they can rely on for 5+ years or getting an elite player to cap off a playoff run, if they're older. 2nd rounders are also pretty valuable. You're still likely getting a mid 80s peak prospect that could blossom into a top player (i.e. Carlos Mancio). 3rd and 4th rounders still net useful role players or can land you players who have fallen too far. Contrary to the beliefs of some, 5th and 6th rounders are not just Comp fodder. While you fail many times, targeting the right builds can land you useful players (i.e. Luis Zamora). NEVER throw away these picks, just because they generally don't work out. The good GMs won't.

Player Age/Decline: I don't understand how not every GM looks closely at this. But each season you see a trade where a GM gives up a quality return for a player who, while he looks good now, has already been declining for a few seasons and even more decline will hinder his production and value.

Check the Vitals Tab! This will show you the ebbs and flows of a player's ratings. Now just because you see a drop, doesn't necessarily mean a player is declining. Sometimes players drop in their first year of being peaked. Every player will have at least 365 days of peak. But if you see a steady diet of drops year-after-year, you can chalk that up to decline.

You can then go back in old files and check out their previous vitals to verify that they are declining. Obviously lessened skills is a big indicator, but lowered health is another indicator.

Finances: With the salary demands bumped to +30%, finances are going to become something to look at more. If a player is overpaid, it's going to be an even worse idea to just take on that player. Consider what other comparable players make or what you could sign a similar player in Free Agency for. That's not to say that you couldn't/shouldn't consider adding an overpaid player in a trade, but you should make people add in cash or prospects/picks to offset the negative value of their contract.

Service Time/Team Control: Good GMs look at this. Personally, whether a small or large budget, it's always a factor for my teams. Not having to commit a lot of money (or getting the player for minimum) opens up your budget to afford to re-sign older players or get involved in some of the bigger name free agents.

BM 14 has a glitch where if a player has exactly 6 years, 0 days Service Time, then he's eligible for arbitration. FCM allows you to offer arbitration, offer fallback for compensation, or release to Free Agency.

Mogul does have Super 2 Status, but it's a little different than real life. Realistically, the top 22% players with at least 2 years, but not 3 years of service are Super 2 Status. This version of Mogul is still on the old top 17%, but it also has a hard line of Super 2 Status and still earning the minimum. That cut-off is 2 years, 142 days. Anyone with 2 years, 143 days or more will be arbitration eligible. Anyone with less will still earn the minimum.

Counting Service Time is quite simple. There are 184 days in a season (March 31 through September 30). A player can only accrue 172 days of service each season (172 days = 1 year). If a player is up for a full season, the extra 12 days simply don't count. You can check the opening day file to see where the player started.

Note that if there are play-in games for the Wildcard play-in game, those days will count as Service Time if a player doesn't yet have a full year.

Prospects: In my own blog, I touched on prospects jumping and then how their peak drops when they age. Based on how much their peak drops when they age, it can give you a good estimation of how many more seasons a player has to develop. Like I said on the other blog, a player isn't going to drop 7 peak one year and then drop 2 peak the next. They will follow the same general path. Checking old files to know these things can save you from buying high on a prospect that is either as good as peaked or just doesn't have enough time to develop.

Trade Market: Some will lead you to believe that this is a big factor. Honestly, this is something that I don't pay much attention to and don't allow to dictate my trades. Though there's still understanding what other teams have available or are looking for.

For example, if you have a RP available and 4 other teams have comparable relief arms. Then you need to decide if it's really worth dealing the guy now or if you can wait it out a season or two. If you really want to deal the RP now, you'll likely have to be the lowest bidder (and possibly take less than you expected). There's nothing wrong with this in certain situations.